アジアパシフィックにおける企業の支払い傾向とセクターリスク

According to the survey of credit risks management in Asia Pacific by Coface, corporate payment experience in the region generally stabilised. Companies in Australia and China suffered more non-payment. The growth slowdown in China remains a concern for other economies in the region in 2014.

Corporate overdue payment stabilised in 2013

According to the survey, roughly 68% of the companies told us that they have faced overdue situation in 2013 (compared to 67% in 2012). Overdue situation has moved slightly toward the long-end with 14% of respondents reported their average overdue days more than 90 days, a slight increase of 1 % compared to 2012.

In our experience, companies with more than 2% of long overdue accounts against turnover could have liquidity problem and have high risk of non-payment to their suppliers. While only 30% of the respondents shared that long-term overdue (i.e. at least 180-days) has weighted more than 2% of their annual turnover in 2013, signalling an improvement compared to the 37% respondents in 2012. Such results point to a stabilized corporate payment experience in Asia in 2013.

2014 Outlook: the threat of a slow growth in China looms over the region

From the hawk’s-eye view, Asia’s economic growth momentum remained strong in the post-crisis era, with Coface’s forecast pointing to a 6.1% for 2014.  Such momentum partly came from the dividend from economic bloom of the 2 biggest emerging markets – China and India – during the past decade; however, with growth outlook of these two countries notably lower than the long-term growth trend (China averaged 10.6% and India averaged 7.8% between 2000 and 2011).

The upturn in the advanced economies (1.9% forecast for 2014, after 1.2% in 2013) mainly US and European markets will benefit to export oriented economies in Asia like Hong Kong, Taiwan and Singapore. However, the decelerated growth of China expected at 7.2% in 2014 could impact most of the economies in Asia which have been relying on demand of China.